Xiaomi’s 2026 smartphone shipment target has been revised sharply upward, jumping from 90 million to 110 million units as the Chinese brand bets that the global memory chip price crisis is nearly over. This shift matters for Pakistani consumers because Xiaomi’s budget Redmi phones are among the most popular handsets sold at places like Hafeez Centre in Lahore and mobile markets across Karachi and Islamabad, and any drop in component costs could translate into more affordable prices on local shelves.
Xiaomi Smartphone Shipment Target Raised by 16 Percent
Xiaomi has revised its full-year 2026 smartphone shipment target upward by approximately 16%, raising the original projection of around 90 million units to 110 million units. That is a big swing for a company that spent most of this year cutting, not raising, its ambitions.
The company had previously cut its target twice due to soaring upstream memory costs, slashing it from an initial 170 million units at the start of the year to as low as 95 million units. In other words, Xiaomi went from planning 170 million shipments all the way down to 95 million, and has now bounced back up to 110 million. That is a dramatic roller-coaster in just one year.
A source close to Xiaomi told Jiemian News that this upward revision of the shipment target stems from the company’s internal assessment that the current memory market trend is poised for a reversal.
What Caused the Crisis in the First Place
To understand why this news matters, it helps to know what went wrong earlier in 2026. Smartphones rely on two types of memory: DRAM (the fast working memory, or RAM) and NAND Flash (the storage chip). Both became very expensive this year.
Since the second half of 2025, DRAM and NAND Flash prices repeatedly recorded their largest-ever quarterly increases. The three major memory manufacturers shifted capacity to more profitable HBM and server DRAM, causing a severe shortage of consumer-grade memory and leading to significant downward revisions in global smartphone shipment forecasts.
Xiaomi President Lu Weibing revealed back in April that a standard 12GB RAM and 512GB storage set cost the company an extra 1,500 yuan compared to 2025. That extra cost did not vanish quietly, it was passed on to buyers. During the first quarter of 2026, Xiaomi shipped 33.8 million smartphones, which was 19.2 percent lower than the same period in 2025. One of the main reasons for the decline was the sharp increase in the prices of memory and storage components used in smartphones. As the cost of these parts went up, smartphone manufacturing became more expensive.
Pakistani buyers felt this too. Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi faced rising production costs as global prices of memory chips continued to surge, a trend that affected smartphone prices in Pakistan. The issue was caused by a global deficit of NAND and DRAM chips, the key elements found in phones, laptops, and servers. Demand surged with AI companies preparing for next-gen technology, tightening supply for consumer electronics.
Why Xiaomi Now Believes Memory Prices Will Fall
Smartphone manufacturers have now begun showing increased resistance to ongoing memory price increases, with OPPO and Vivo having both rejected Samsung’s third-quarter quotation. When major brands push back on pricing, suppliers are forced to offer better deals or lose the business. Xiaomi appears to be reading this pushback as a turning point.
The report, citing supply chain sources, states that most of the additional shipment volume is expected to come from entry-level devices. This is key. Xiaomi is not ramping up its expensive flagship phones. It is betting on cheap, high-volume Redmi handsets, the exact models that sell fastest in markets like Pakistan.
The company is preparing a range of new budget smartphones including the Redmi Note 17 series and new Redmi phones.
What This Means for Pakistani Buyers and Grey-Market Sellers
Pakistan is a price-sensitive market. The starting price for Xiaomi phones in Pakistan is around Rs. 34,999, with an average price of about Rs. 68,749. Grey-market imports of Xiaomi phones, which arrive without PTA approval, are often cheaper still. Both official and grey channels are directly affected by what happens to global memory component costs.
If memory prices do start to fall in the second half of 2026, as Xiaomi’s production bet suggests, then several things could follow for Pakistan:
- Lower launch prices on upcoming Redmi Note 17 and similar budget models when they arrive locally.
- Pressure on existing stock prices as grey-market sellers adjust to new, cheaper supply coming into the region.
- More competition as other brands like OPPO and vivo, who also resisted memory price hikes, may similarly ramp up budget production.
Entry-level and mid-range devices remain extremely popular in many regions, especially across Asia and other emerging markets where consumers continue looking for phones that offer strong value for money. Pakistan fits this profile closely. The Redmi Note lineup, for instance, has historically been one of the fastest-selling smartphone series in Pakistani mobile markets because it offers decent specs at a price ordinary families can afford.
It is worth noting that memory price stabilization will not happen overnight. Supply shortages will not disappear overnight. However, Xiaomi ramping up entry-level production proves they expect memory costs to cool down much faster than analyst projections predicted. Buyers who have been waiting to upgrade their phones may find that the second half of 2026 offers better value than the first half did.
For a broader look at smartphone affordability challenges in Pakistan, see our earlier coverage on how GSMA flagged smartphone affordability as Pakistan’s digital gap.
Xiaomi’s Standing in the Global Market
In Q1 2026, Xiaomi shipped 33.8 million smartphones with an 11.5% global market share, down from 13.8% in Q1 2025, a 19.1% year-over-year decline. That decline shows just how hard the memory price crisis hit the company. Raising its shipment target back toward 110 million is Xiaomi’s way of saying it does not expect that pain to continue.
The revised goal reflects growing confidence that market conditions will improve after months of rising component costs and supply chain uncertainty. Whether that confidence proves correct will become clear by the end of the year, but for now the supply chain signals appear to support Xiaomi’s view.
You can read more about how memory costs and component supply are affecting the broader tech market in our coverage of Samsung’s AI chip earnings and what they mean for Galaxy phone pricing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Xiaomi’s new smartphone shipment target for 2026?
Xiaomi has reportedly raised its 2026 smartphone shipment target to 110 million units, betting on stronger budget phone sales and improving memory chip prices. The previous target was around 90 million units.
Why did Xiaomi cut its targets earlier in 2026 before raising them again?
Due to the continuous shortfalls and rising costs of upstream memory chips, Xiaomi had twice lowered its shipment targets earlier this year. In January 2026, multiple phone manufacturers including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion cut their full-year handset order volumes, with Xiaomi’s reduction exceeding 20%.
Which Xiaomi phones will benefit most from cheaper memory prices?
Budget and mid-range models will benefit the most. Most of the additional shipment volume is expected to come from entry-level devices. In Pakistan that points directly to the Redmi and Redmi Note series, which are the brand’s top sellers in local markets.
Will Xiaomi phone prices in Pakistan drop soon?
There is no official price cut announced yet. But if global memory prices do stabilize, as Xiaomi’s internal team believes, that cost relief usually flows through to retail prices within one to two product cycles. Pakistani buyers watching upcoming Redmi Note 17 launches should track official and grey-market prices closely over the next few months.
