For the first time in five years, the United States and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks in March.
With Beijing’s representatives telling US counterparts. That they would not use nuclear weapons to threaten Taiwan, according to two American delegates who attended.
US Interlocutors
After their US interlocutors expressed concern that China might use. Or threaten to use, nuclear weapons if defeated in a conflict over Taiwan, Chinese representatives provided reassurances.
“They told the US side that they were absolutely convinced that they are able to prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons,”
Said scholar David Santoro, the US organiser of the Track Two talks, the details of which are being reported for the first time.
Participants in Track Two talks are typically former officials and academics. Who can speak authoritatively about their government’s position. Even if they were not directly involved in developing it. Track One refers to negotiations between governments.
2-Day Discussions
At the two-day discussions, held in a Shanghai hotel conference room, Washington was represented by approximately half a dozen delegates, including former officials and scholars.
Beijing dispatched a delegation of scholars and analysts, including several former People’s Liberation Army officers.
According to the spokesperson, the department did not attend the March meeting, despite being aware of it.
The spokesperson stated that such discussions cannot replace formal negotiations, which “require participants to speak authoritatively on issues that are often highly compartmentalised within [Chinese] government circles.”
The Chinese delegation and Beijing’s defence ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
The nuclear-armed powers held informal talks, with the US and China at odds over major economic and geopolitical issues, and leaders in Washington and Beijing accusing each other of bad faith.
The two countries briefly resumed Track One talks on nuclear arms in November. But those talks have since stalled, with a top US official publicly expressing dissatisfaction with China’s responsiveness.
Beijing’s Nuclear Arsenal
The Pentagon, which estimates that Beijing’s nuclear arsenal will grow by more than 20% between 2021 and 2023.
Stated in October that China “would also consider nuclear use to restore deterrence if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan” threatened Chinese Communist Party rule.
The Track Two talks are part of a two-decade nuclear weapons and posture dialogue that stalled when the Trump administration cut funding in 2019.
Semi-Official Discussions
Following the Covid-19 pandemic, semi-official discussions resumed on broader security and energy issues, but only the Shanghai meeting went into detail about nuclear weapons and posture.
Nuclear policy analyst William Alberque of the Henry Stimson Centre think tank. Who was not involved in the March discussions. Said the Track Two negotiations were beneficial during a period of strained US-Chinese relations.
“It’s important to continue talking with China with absolutely no expectations,” he said when nuclear arms are at issue.
To read our blog on “Potential for unlimited energy with new nuclear power development,” click here
