According to World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day, the global population is expected to be reached till 8 billion on November 15, 2022, and India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
“This year’s World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.
The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, and is expected to fall below 1% by 2020. According to the United Nations’ most recent projections, the world’s population could reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is expected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and stay there until 2100.
According to World Population Prospects 2022, fertility has declined significantly in many countries in recent decades.
Today, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a country or region where lifetime fertility is less than 2.1 births per woman, which is roughly the level required for long-run zero growth in a population with low mortality.
The populations of 61 countries or areas are expected to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to low fertility and, in some cases, high emigration rates.
More than half of the projected global population increase between now and 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of the projected increase through 2050.
“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
“Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult. Conversely, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth.”
Because of recent fertility reductions, the proportion of the population of working age (between 25 and 64 years) has increased in most Sub-Saharan African countries, as well as in parts of Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
The “demographic dividend” refers to the time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita provided by this shift in the age distribution.
To reap the full benefits of a favorable age distribution, countries should invest in human capital development by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages, as well as promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work.
The proportion of the global population aged 65 and up is expected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
At that point, it is expected that the number of people aged 65 and up will be more than double that of children under the age of five, and roughly equal to that of children under the age of twelve.
Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programs to the increasing number of elderly people, such as establishing universal health care and long-term care systems and improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.
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