The SpaceX stock slump hit a painful milestone on July 15, 2026, when shares of the rocket and AI company briefly dipped below their $135 initial public offering price for the first time since the company went public in June. For investors who bought in at the IPO, it marked the first moment their holdings were in the red. For everyone watching the private space economy, including people in Pakistan waiting for Starlink to launch, it raised a simple but important question: what went wrong so fast?
From Record High to Below the IPO Price in One Month
SpaceX had one of the most dramatic stock market debuts in history. The company priced its shares at $135 and began trading on June 12, 2026, opening at $150 per share. Within two days, the stock climbed above $225, briefly pushing SpaceX past Amazon and Microsoft in market value and making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. The IPO itself raised around $86 billion, the largest in history.
Then the drop started. Shares fell sharply in the days that followed. By July 15, after four straight sessions of losses, the SpaceX stock slump had taken the price as low as $133 intraday before closing at $135.27. At that point, the company’s market cap had fallen to roughly $1.75 trillion, well below the $2.6 trillion peak it reached just weeks earlier. That is a drop of about 34% from the all-time high.
What Triggered the SpaceX Stock Slump
There was no single event that caused the selloff. Several factors came together at the same time.
1. The AI spending question
SpaceX merged with Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI earlier this year in an all-stock deal. Since then, the company’s AI segment has been burning cash at a rapid pace, spending $7.7 billion on capital expenses in the first quarter of 2026 alone. In 2025, the AI unit posted $3.2 billion in revenue but an operating loss of $6.4 billion. Investors are growing nervous about how long that kind of spending can continue before it hurts the broader business.
2. Stretched valuation
At its IPO price, SpaceX was valued at more than 90 times its annual sales. That is an extremely high number, even for a company with big ambitions. Only about 4% to 5% of all SpaceX shares were sold in the IPO, which made the price look artificially high during the early weeks. As excitement cooled, the valuation came under pressure. Analysts at Morningstar had warned before the IPO that the company looked significantly overvalued.
3. A failed Starship test
On July 17, SpaceX tried to launch its 13th Starship test flight but had to call it off after at least two Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to ignite. Elon Musk said the engines would need to be replaced, pushing the launch to the following week. The scrubbed flight added more downward pressure on an already weak stock, and shares fell again on Friday, July 18. Starship matters a lot because it is the only rocket currently capable of carrying SpaceX’s next-generation Starlink satellites to orbit.
4. Lockup expiry looming
Early investors and SpaceX employees are currently restricted from selling their shares. Those restrictions, called lockups, are set to expire in less than a month. When they do, the number of tradable shares could roughly quadruple. If those early holders decide to sell, it could push the price down even further. Markets are already factoring in that risk.
5. Broader tech mood
The wider Nasdaq-100 also fell on the same day, dragged down partly by a selloff in semiconductor stocks. Investor sentiment toward AI-linked tech companies has cooled across the board, and SpaceX, with its heavy AI exposure, got caught in that wave.
The SpaceX Stock Slump and What It Signals for Space Stocks
The SpaceX stock slump is being watched closely because of what it might mean for other big tech IPOs on the horizon. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have filed confidentially with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to go public. Analysts say SpaceX’s stock performance is being used as a test of how much appetite the market really has for large, loss-making tech companies with trillion-dollar valuations. A continued weak showing from SpaceX could make those future listings harder to price.
Despite the recent drop, most Wall Street analysts still have a positive view on the stock. The average analyst price target for SpaceX is around $247, and roughly 80% of analysts covering the stock have a buy or overweight recommendation. The key debate is not whether SpaceX has a future, but whether the current price reflects reality or still too much optimism.
It is also worth noting that Starlink, the satellite internet arm, is the only SpaceX business that is currently profitable. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025. However, the average monthly revenue per user has been falling as the service expands into lower-income markets. That decline puts pressure on Starlink to keep growing its subscriber base just to maintain the same profit levels.
Why This Matters for Pakistan
Pakistan is one of the countries where Starlink has not yet launched commercial service. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority introduced a new Fixed Satellite Services licensing framework in April 2026, clearing the regulatory path for companies like Starlink, Amazon’s Kuiper, and OneWeb to apply for operating licences. Under this framework, a licensed operator would need to begin service within 18 months of receiving approval. For Starlink, that means commercial service in Pakistan could realistically begin before the end of 2027 in a best-case scenario, with rural areas expected to be the first focus.
For Pakistani tech followers and potential Starlink users, the SpaceX stock slump is a reminder that a company’s share price and its day-to-day operations are two different things. A falling stock does not mean Starlink satellites stop working or that SpaceX halts its expansion plans. Starlink’s infrastructure keeps growing regardless of what SPCX does on the Nasdaq on any given day.
That said, a prolonged stock decline could affect SpaceX’s ability to raise cheap capital. The company already raised $25 billion in bonds after its IPO, and those bonds are now trading under pressure. If borrowing becomes more expensive, it could slow down how fast SpaceX builds out new satellite networks and ground infrastructure in markets like Pakistan.
For Pakistanis watching this story, the key thing to track is not the daily stock price but the regulatory timeline at home. The PTA framework is in place, and Starlink has reportedly completed much of its technical groundwork in Pakistan. The next step is formal licence approval and the start of the 18-month rollout clock. You can track Starlink’s official availability updates at starlink.com. For those curious about SpaceX’s public company disclosures, the company’s filings are available through the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did SpaceX stock fall below its IPO price?
The SpaceX stock slump was caused by a mix of factors: cooling investor excitement, concerns about heavy AI spending through the xAI merger, a high price-to-sales valuation above 90 times revenue, a scrubbed Starship test flight, and broader weakness in tech stocks. Only about 4-5% of shares were sold at IPO, so early price swings were always going to be large.
How much has SpaceX stock fallen from its peak?
At the low point on July 15, 2026, SpaceX shares were about 34% below their all-time high of roughly $225 reached in mid-June. The stock dipped as low as $133 intraday before closing at $135.27, just above its $135 IPO price. The company’s market cap fell from a peak of about $2.6 trillion to around $1.75 trillion.
Does the SpaceX stock drop affect Starlink’s Pakistan launch plans?
Directly, no. Starlink’s launch in Pakistan depends on regulatory approval from the PTA, not on SpaceX’s share price. The PTA launched a new Fixed Satellite Services framework in April 2026, opening the door for Starlink to apply for a licence. If approvals move quickly, service could begin in Pakistan before the end of 2027. The stock price affects SpaceX’s cost of capital but not its operational plans in the short term.
Is SpaceX stock a good buy after the slump?
This is a question every investor has to answer based on their own research and risk appetite. SpaceX’s Starlink business is profitable, and most analysts still have a buy rating with an average price target around $247. However, the company is losing billions in its AI segment, faces an upcoming lockup expiry that could flood the market with new shares, and carries one of the highest price-to-sales ratios of any major public company. There is real uncertainty on both sides.
