China’s role as mediator in a peace agreement between archrivals Saudi Arabia and Iran may help it surpass the United States as the world’s preeminent arbiter of stability.
Last week, China announced the results of its successful mediation efforts, which had brought together two longtime enemies and resulted in the signing of a friendship treaty, marking a big diplomatic coup for China.
After years of mutual hatred, alleged attacks, and tales of rivalry between the two countries, the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian reunion is a major diplomatic breakthrough between two regional neighbours.
This is also Beijing’s first venture into Middle Eastern affairs, a region long considered exclusive to the United States since the end of the colonial era, when most of these countries gained their independence.
After seven years of estrangement, Riyadh and Tehran announced on March 10 that they will restore diplomatic ties by reopening embassies and consulates within two months and enforcing security and economic cooperation accords made over two decades ago.
It was the Chinese government, acting as a mediator, that caught the attention of the international community when the two bitter enemies announced they were mending fences and resuming diplomatic ties after years of hostility.
By doing this, China has ostensibly assumed a position that the United States was either unable to play or never seriously considered doing. The Middle East is a region where rivalries are often based on nuances and subtleties that are difficult for an outsider to fathom, though in recent times they have taken the shape of hardnosed economic and strategic interests, and this is Beijing’s first major diplomatic foray into the Middle East mediation.
It appears that Saudi Arabia and Iran have been in talks since at least 2021, when the Al Ula Summit was convened in Saudi Arabia to resolve the embargo of Qatar and heal divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council. In the two years that followed, the UAE reestablished ties with Iran, surpassing China as the country’s primary source of imported goods, while Kuwait recalled its ambassador from exile in Tehran.
Since 2021, much of the dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia has taken place in Iraq and Oman. Several attempts at arranging discussions between Iran and Riyadh over the past seven years have been made by other regional governments, notably Kuwait and Pakistan, with mainly failed results.
How the new paradigm of Saudi Iran relationship will impact the global politics
What does Beijing’s rise in the region mean for the Middle East – and for the greater US interests – at a time when tensions are rising between the world’s two major economies, the United States and China?
China has recently advocated for a change in the regional security architecture in the Persian Gulf beginning in 2020. China proposed a global effort to make the Gulf region “an Oasis of Security” at a United Nations Security Council meeting organised by Russia in October 2020.
After four days of secret discussions in Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia have decided to restore diplomatic ties.
According to reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in February 2023 as the cornerstone of China’s aim to become a global peacemaker. At a time when the United States is putting a premium on alignment with countries that share its political system and philosophy through its Democracy Summit, it is portrayed as a banner for China to overhaul the current international security order.
China’s expanding strength and influence primarily provide it a voice in shaping the international architecture for maintaining peace and security. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs included “bringing about security improvements through political communication and peaceful negotiation” among the GSI Concept Paper’s guiding concepts and principles when it was published in February 2023.
China is optimistic about the prospects of this path after successfully mediating a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The hope is that China can take the lead in areas where the United States has either failed to engage or chosen to ignore.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are “pivot countries” in China’s view of the area because of their political, economic, and military power, making them crucial allies for Beijing and making a delicate balance between them the most important strategy.
China is the most important trading partner for both countries. China’s partnership diplomacy in the Middle East has reached its pinnacle, with Beijing elevating Tehran and Riyadh to the level of comprehensive strategic allies.
Signing similar partnership agreements with both partners is only part of China’s balancing act. While economic relations are plainly skewed in Saudi Arabia’s favour, China promises Iran political support and a financial lifeline in the face of US pressure. Yet, when one partner offers something other than the other, it can throw off the equilibrium. China’s diplomatic limitations were on display in December when Chinese President Xi Jingpin’s visit to Saudi Arabia resulted in a joint China-GCC communiqué that angered Iran.
The GSI Concept Paper also stresses the importance of supporting political settlements of flashpoint crises like the war in Ukraine. As a result, President Xi’s attempts to support a peaceful settlement to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine would be crucial to follow. It would be helpful for the GSI if another victory could be won after his trip to Russia.
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