In a surprising turn, the US and China agreed to a major tariff rollback for 90 days, boosting global markets. The breakthrough followed intense weekend talks in Geneva, where officials reported “substantial progress.” A joint statement highlighted efforts to build a sustainable trade relationship. Investors cheered the pause in the trade war, which had disrupted supply chains and fueled recession fears.
Markets Rally on Positive News
Following the announcement, Dow futures surged over 2%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures jumped nearly 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Asian markets also soared, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closing 3% higher. The US dollar strengthened, and gold prices fell as risk appetite returned. The optimistic shift eased concerns over prolonged economic tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
New Tariff Structure Aims to Ease Economic Pressure
The revised tariffs, effective May 14, will see both nations slash duties by 115 percentage points. The US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reduces its rates from 125% to 10%. However, US tariffs on fentanyl-related imports remain at 20%. This temporary relief aims to alleviate financial strain on businesses and consumers impacted by the trade war.
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Economic Strain Prompted Compromise
Both economies faced mounting pressure before the agreement. The US recorded its first GDP contraction since 2022 as importers struggled with high tariffs. Meanwhile, China’s exports to the US plummeted, worsening its manufacturing slump. Beijing responded with stimulus measures. Analysts suggest these challenges pushed both nations toward compromise, avoiding further economic damage.
Analysts Hail “Best-Case Scenario”
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities called the deal a “best-case scenario,” predicting further reductions if talks progress. The agreement signals a potential thaw in relations, though uncertainties remain. Market optimism reflects hopes for sustained negotiations rather than a one-time truce. Investors now await concrete steps to solidify the tentative agreement.
Ongoing Dialogue to Shape Future Trade Relations
A new framework for continued discussions will be led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Talks may rotate between the US, China, or neutral locations. This structured approach aims to prevent future escalations and foster long-term cooperation.
US Rejects Full Decoupling
At a press conference, Bessent denied seeking complete economic separation, calling high tariffs “embargo-like.” Both nations aim for balanced trade rather than isolation. The remarks contrast with previous adversarial rhetoric, signaling a shift toward pragmatic engagement.
China Adopts Softer Tone
China’s Commerce Ministry praised the deal as a step toward resolving tensions. The conciliatory tone marks a departure from earlier demands for full tariff removal before negotiations. This flexibility suggests Beijing recognizes the mutual benefits of de-escalation amid economic challenges.
Observers Stunned by Sudden Shift
The agreement surprised experts, as US officials had downplayed expectations before Geneva. Many anticipated a minor de-escalation, not a sweeping tariff cut. The unexpected progress underscores the urgency both nations felt to stabilize their economies and global markets.
Conclusion
While the tariff rollback offers immediate relief, its long-term impact depends on sustained negotiations. Both sides must address underlying disputes to ensure lasting stability. For now, markets celebrate a rare positive development in US-China relations, but cautious optimism prevails.